War Travel: Worldwide Air Ticket Sales Down Dramatically
Globally Ticket sales to and from the Middle East, and America went down after the outbreak of the war. Ticket sales to and from the Middle East went down dramatically. It does not only include flights to and from Israel, but also to Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, and Egypt.
Even though there is absolutely no point in not traveling to Saudi Arabia or Egypt, travelers are sensitive to security issues, and often don’t understand geographics, or geo-politics.
Only the UAE remains almost stable, showing the trust level, and safety concerns by international travelers remain confident.
However the Israel-Hamas war has not only had a negative impact on aviation to and from the Middle East; the effect is global, with the whole market slowing by 5 percentage points (p.p.) in the three weeks since Hamas’ attack on Israel on October 7th. Its analysis compared flight bookings (benchmarked against pre-pandemic levels) during the three weeks before October 7th with the same period after.
Looking at outbound travel, flight bookings from the Middle Eastern countries fell by 9 p.p. since the outbreak of war. From the Americas, they slowed by 10 p.p., whilst Asia Pacific, Europe (including Israel), and Africa each slowed by 2 p.p.
From a destination perspective, the growth in bookings to all regions of the world has slowed down, with the exception of Africa, which has continued to recover towards 2019 levels. Flight bookings to the Americas are down by 6 p.p., to Europe by 3 p.p., to Asia Pacific by 1 p.p., and to the Middle East by 26 p.p.
Within the region affected by the conflict, Israel has suffered the worst, with many airlines having canceled flights. In the period since October 7th, flight bookings plummeted by 155 p.p. (*A fall in bookings of over 100% indicates that in addition to there being no new bookings, there have also been cancellations, depleting the existing stock of bookings.) It is followed by Saudi Arabia, down 67 p.p., Jordan, down 54 p.p., Lebanon, down 45 p.p., and Egypt, down 35 p.p. Flight bookings to GCC nations as a whole have declined by 25 p.p.
As of October 6th, bookings showed that global air travel in the last quarter of the year, Q4, would reach 95% of its 2019 level, but, as of 27th October, the outlook has fallen back by 7 p.p. and stands at 88%.
The equivalent change in outlook for the Middle East is much more sobering, falling back 16 p.p. to 110%, from 126%, before the war began.”